Forecasting State-to-State Migration Rates

Results of Interbank Exchange Rates Forecasting using State Space Model

This study evaluates the performance of three alternative models for forecasting daily interbank exchange rate of U.S. dollar measured in Pak rupees. The simple ARIMA models and complex models such as GARCH-type models and a state space model are discussed and compared. Four different measures are used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. The main result is the state space model provides the b...

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS STATISTICAL RESEARCH DIVISION REPORT SERIES SRD Research Report Number: CENSUS/SRD/RR-90/07 FORECASTING STATE-TO-STATE MIGRATION RATES bY

Models of internal migration can be found in the demographic, geographic and economic literatures. Unlike most of these models which are based on cross-sectional analysis of migration rates, the approach here is to incorporate longitudinal as well as crosssectional aspects. Empirical modeling using this approach is possible using a data base recently revised and updated by the U. S. Bureau of t...

The State of Macroeconomic Forecasting

Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macro forecasts. Issues discussed include the comparative accuracy of macroeconometric models compared to their time series alternatives, whether the forecasting record has improved over time, the rationality of ma...

Part Ii: Migration to the Welfare State

Information Rates Subjected to State Masking

We consider the problem of rate–R channel coding with causal/non–causal side information at the transmitter, under an additional requirement of minimizing the amount of information that can be learned from the channel output about the state sequence, which is defined in terms of the equivocation E (i.e., the mutual information between the state sequence and the channel output sequence). A singl...